Analyst Talk - Before You Leap - Numbers Can Say Anything

Episode: 00329 Released on July 27, 2026 Description:  Can numbers really tell the truth, or can they tell any story we want them to? In this episode of Before You Leap, Jason Elder and Randy Stickley tackle one of the most misunderstood aspects of intelligence and crime analysis: the interpretation of numbers. The discussion explores why percentages can create a false sense of certainty, the difference between confidence and probability, how statistics can unintentionally mislead decision-makers, and why analysts must think beyond the spreadsheet. They also discuss forecasting versus estimation, the importance of data governance, communicating uncertainty, and why every analyst should consider how their work may ultimately be interpreted or even defended in court. If you've ever presented crime trends, intelligence assessments, or statistical reports, this conversation will change the way you think about numbers. 🎧 Listen, share, and keep talking! [Note:  Description produced by ChatGPT.]

Get to know more about Randy by listening to his episodes on Analyst Talk With Jason Elder:
https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/atwje-randy-stickley-the-self-promoter/
https://www.leapodcasts.com/?s=BeforeYouLeap 
Name Drops: 
Public Service Announcements:
Abigail W. (https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/analyst-talk-abigail-w-%e2%80%93-the-storytelling-analyst/)
Chris Mason (https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/analyst-talk-chris-mason-the-silver-lining-analyst/)
Related Links:
Rethinking Thought https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DJ82G1PL/ref=tsm_1_fb_lk
Sherman Kent – Words of Estimative Probability
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probability  
Association(s) Mentioned: IALEA
Vendor(s) Mentioned:
Contact:  randall.c.stickleyii@gmail.com; https://www.linkedin.com/in/randall-stickley-36b0a5109/
Transcript:  https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/gmh3f9qnbr68neg6/BYL13_transcript.pdf
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00:00:25 - Introducing Randy
00:01:30 - Why numbers can be misleading
00:04:20 - False precision and confidence vs. probability
00:11:25 - How decision-makers interpret statistics
00:18:30 - Federal vs. local use of probability assessments
00:19:45 - Crime analysis, data governance, and trend interpretation
00:24:45 - Before You Leap: "Numbers can say anything"