Analyst Talk - Timothy J Smith – Quantifying the Unquantifiable

Episode: 00317 Released on May 4, 2026 Description:  This week on Analyst Talk, Jason sits down with Timothy J. Smith, a former CIA analyst who helped reshape how intelligence professionals think about data and decision-making. Tim shares his journey from building a UN voting analysis tool that uncovered global alignment trends to leading the development of the Global Power Index (an effort focused on quantifying national power in a meaningful, actionable way). He explains how analysts can turn complex, qualitative concepts into measurable insights, while still acknowledging uncertainty. The conversation also dives into analytic tradecraft, emphasizing how clear writing and audience-focused communication are essential for impact. Whether you're working with data, briefing leadership, or refining your craft, this episode offers practical lessons on turning analysis into influence.
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Name Drops: David Singer (00:22:40), David Cariens (01:18:21)
Public Service Announcements:
Robert Aboumitri (https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/analyst-talk-robert-aboumitri-the-triple-v-analyst/)
Megan Cruz (https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/analyst-talk-megan-cruz-from-burnout-to-leadership/)
Dr. Greg Thomas (https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/analyst-talk-dr-greg-thomas-%e2%80%93-from-organized-crime-to-geoint/)
Related Links:
https://www.cia.gov/
https://www.rand.org/
https://rcmp.ca/en
https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Association(s) Mentioned:
Vendor(s) Mentioned:
Contact:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/timothy-j-smith-66b1b9173/ , timothyjsmith007@gmail.com   
Transcript:  https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/aengqh3v6usnjep7/TimSmith_transcript.pdf 
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Podcast Researcher:
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00:00:17 – Introducing Timothy
00:04:13 – Getting recruited by the CIA
00:10:55 – Building the UN voting tool
00:17:41 – Developing the Global Power Index
00:30:12 – Break: Aboumitri, Cruz, & Thomas
00:32:22 – Measuring hard-to-quantify concepts
00:51:09 – Transition to consulting & training
00:52:32 – Break: Aboumitri, Cruz, & Thomas
00:58:17 – Writing principles for analysts
01:11:22 – Advice for analysts
01:14:00 – Personal Interests:  Out of the Park Baseball
01:20:53 – Word to the World